This is a simulation software for dynamical systems. It has a graphical interface for inputting your model and you can use it to investigate systems of coupled differential equations. Find it @
http://www.iseesystems.com/Softwares/Business/ithinkSoftware.aspx
Friday, March 30, 2007
Thursday, March 29, 2007
Wednesday, March 28, 2007
Dancing Robots
A robot blob that dances "soulfully" to different tunes could pave the way for machines that interact more naturally with human beings. Find out more @
http://www.newscientisttech.com/article/dn11434
http://www.newscientisttech.com/article/dn11434
Offshoring of Jobs
This is an influential study by Alan Blinder published by the Foreign Affairs magazine - a publication of the Council on Foreign Relations.
http://www.internationaltraderelations.com/Blinder.Offshoring%20(Foreign%20Affairs,%20March-April%202006).pdf
Listen to this video whereby he explains why he thinks free trade has made an estimated 30 million to 40 million U.S. jobs vulnerable to outsourcing.
http://release.theplatform.com/content.select?pid=c5RHfCVOvBZ4P8vf6P8IyxpkzZ7AMrPn
http://www.internationaltraderelations.com/Blinder.Offshoring%20(Foreign%20Affairs,%20March-April%202006).pdf
Listen to this video whereby he explains why he thinks free trade has made an estimated 30 million to 40 million U.S. jobs vulnerable to outsourcing.
http://release.theplatform.com/content.select?pid=c5RHfCVOvBZ4P8vf6P8IyxpkzZ7AMrPn
Tuesday, March 27, 2007
Monday, March 26, 2007
Free MS Word 2007 Map Editor for MindManager
Please find a free MS Word 2007 Map Editor for Mindjet MindManager @ http://mindjetlabs.com/cs/files/folders/mindjetlabs/entry72.aspx
More on Complexity
Please find a short history of Complexity @ http://www.ralph-abraham.org/articles/MS#108.Complex/complex.pdf
You can find more @ http://www.visual-chaos.org/
You can find more @ http://www.visual-chaos.org/
Sunday, March 25, 2007
More on Virtual Worlds
http://www.zocalola.org/Audio/20061210_zocalo.mp3
The stroke victims support group is a particularly interesting innovation.
The stroke victims support group is a particularly interesting innovation.
Friday, March 23, 2007
French UFO Archives
The French national space agency has a website documenting more than 1,600 UFO sightings spanning five decades @ www.cnes-geipan.fr
Top 23 Most Used Engineering Phrases
1. A NUMBER OF DIFFERENT APPROACHES ARE BEING TRIED
We are still pissinging in the wind.
2. EXTENSIVE REPORT IS BEING PREPARED ON A FRESH APPROACH TO THE PROBLEM
We just hired three kids fresh out of college.
3. CLOSE PROJECT COORDINATION
We know who to blame.
4. MAJOR TECHNOLOGICAL BREAKTHROUGH
It works OK, but looks very hi-tech.
5. CUSTOMER SATISFACTION IS DELIVERED ASSURED
We are so far behind schedule the customer is happy to get it delivered.
6. PRELIMINARY OPERATIONAL TESTS WERE INCONCLUSIVE
The darn thing blew up when we threw the switch.
7. TEST RESULTS WERE EXTREMELY GRATIFYING
We are so surprised that the stupid thing works.
8. THE ENTIRE CONCEPT WILL HAVE TO BE ABANDONED
The only person who understood the thing quit.
9. IT IS IN THE PROCESS
It is so wrapped up in red tape that the situation is about hopeless.
10. WE WILL LOOK INTO IT
Forget it! We have enough problems for now.
11. PLEASE NOTE AND INITIAL
Let's spread the responsibility for the screw up.
12. GIVE US THE BENEFIT OF YOUR THINKING
We'll listen to what you have to say as long as it doesn't interfere with what we've already done.
13. GIVE US YOUR INTERPRETATION
I can't wait to hear this bull!
14. SEE ME or LET'S DISCUSS
Come into my office, I'm lonely.
15. ALL NEW
Parts not interchangeable with the previous design.
16. RUGGED
Too damn heavy to lift!
17. LIGHTWEIGHT
Lighter than RUGGED.
18. YEARS OF DEVELOPMENT
One finally worked.
19. ENERGY SAVING
Achieved when the power switch is off.
20. LOW MAINTENANCE
Impossible to fix if broken.
21. FEATURE:
We can't fix the bug so we've documented it and are calling it a "feature".
22. NEW RELEASE:
We're too cheap to beta test our code so we'll sell it to you as a new product and let y'all beta test it for us.
23. SYNERGY:
Management doesn't have a clue as to what this product is or what they are doing, so they're slinging buzzwords like there's no tomorrow. See also PARADIGM, REVOLUTIONARY and OUTSIDE THE BOX.
We are still pissinging in the wind.
2. EXTENSIVE REPORT IS BEING PREPARED ON A FRESH APPROACH TO THE PROBLEM
We just hired three kids fresh out of college.
3. CLOSE PROJECT COORDINATION
We know who to blame.
4. MAJOR TECHNOLOGICAL BREAKTHROUGH
It works OK, but looks very hi-tech.
5. CUSTOMER SATISFACTION IS DELIVERED ASSURED
We are so far behind schedule the customer is happy to get it delivered.
6. PRELIMINARY OPERATIONAL TESTS WERE INCONCLUSIVE
The darn thing blew up when we threw the switch.
7. TEST RESULTS WERE EXTREMELY GRATIFYING
We are so surprised that the stupid thing works.
8. THE ENTIRE CONCEPT WILL HAVE TO BE ABANDONED
The only person who understood the thing quit.
9. IT IS IN THE PROCESS
It is so wrapped up in red tape that the situation is about hopeless.
10. WE WILL LOOK INTO IT
Forget it! We have enough problems for now.
11. PLEASE NOTE AND INITIAL
Let's spread the responsibility for the screw up.
12. GIVE US THE BENEFIT OF YOUR THINKING
We'll listen to what you have to say as long as it doesn't interfere with what we've already done.
13. GIVE US YOUR INTERPRETATION
I can't wait to hear this bull!
14. SEE ME or LET'S DISCUSS
Come into my office, I'm lonely.
15. ALL NEW
Parts not interchangeable with the previous design.
16. RUGGED
Too damn heavy to lift!
17. LIGHTWEIGHT
Lighter than RUGGED.
18. YEARS OF DEVELOPMENT
One finally worked.
19. ENERGY SAVING
Achieved when the power switch is off.
20. LOW MAINTENANCE
Impossible to fix if broken.
21. FEATURE:
We can't fix the bug so we've documented it and are calling it a "feature".
22. NEW RELEASE:
We're too cheap to beta test our code so we'll sell it to you as a new product and let y'all beta test it for us.
23. SYNERGY:
Management doesn't have a clue as to what this product is or what they are doing, so they're slinging buzzwords like there's no tomorrow. See also PARADIGM, REVOLUTIONARY and OUTSIDE THE BOX.
Thursday, March 22, 2007
AI and US National Security
In the book: Annihilation from Within, Fred Charles Iklé discusses one threat, among many, which is the clandestine international competition in artificial intelligence. If U.S. intelligence found that a scientifically advanced nation had achieved a breakthrough bridging computer-based artificial intelligence with brain science, US would face a superhuman intellect that “would revolutionize all prior considerations about national security.”
Iklé envisions the construction and use of an integrated brain-computer system. Iklé notes that “such an intelligence system would integrate human minds with the enormous memories and calculating and organizing capacities of advanced computers . . . lead[ing] to a truly revolutionary upheaval for the human race.”
In such a race, Iklé believes America would enter with moral constraints not hampering its adversary. In Iklé’s view, it is unlikely to thwart such an adversary with the kind of “legally binding” treaties that have failed in the past.
Iklé envisions the construction and use of an integrated brain-computer system. Iklé notes that “such an intelligence system would integrate human minds with the enormous memories and calculating and organizing capacities of advanced computers . . . lead[ing] to a truly revolutionary upheaval for the human race.”
In such a race, Iklé believes America would enter with moral constraints not hampering its adversary. In Iklé’s view, it is unlikely to thwart such an adversary with the kind of “legally binding” treaties that have failed in the past.
Tuesday, March 20, 2007
What's Hot, What's Not: IT Skills You'll Need in 2010
Interesting article worth reading @
http://www.globalknowledge.com/training/customgo.asp?find=P34_FEATURE&id=17197&pageid=29&country=United+States
Note AI, BI, and Data mining are considered hot!
http://www.globalknowledge.com/training/customgo.asp?find=P34_FEATURE&id=17197&pageid=29&country=United+States
Note AI, BI, and Data mining are considered hot!
Monday, March 19, 2007
Free File Transfer Site
This free service is called YouSendIt and acts as an intermediary in the transfer of files between two people.
To use it, all you need is Web access and an e-mail account. To send a file, first create a free YouSendIt account at www.YouSendIt.com. Your e-mail address will be your User ID. Upon logging in, you’ll be presented with a menu of options. These start with sending a file and run through checking your Inbox or Outbox, reviewing a list of the items you’ve sent, tracking the status of a file transfer, or accessing an address book of user contacts.
There are more features than this base feature that require a paid subscription.
To use it, all you need is Web access and an e-mail account. To send a file, first create a free YouSendIt account at www.YouSendIt.com. Your e-mail address will be your User ID. Upon logging in, you’ll be presented with a menu of options. These start with sending a file and run through checking your Inbox or Outbox, reviewing a list of the items you’ve sent, tracking the status of a file transfer, or accessing an address book of user contacts.
There are more features than this base feature that require a paid subscription.
Free Bayesian Statistics Tool
WinBUGS is based on Bayesian analysis that makes use of prior and conditional probabilities (the correct approach to statistics). It makes use of several techniques such as Gibbs Sampling and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations to estimate these probabilities and place confidence intervals around them.
Warning: Although the program is Windows-based, offers a convenient graphical user interface, and includes several automatic graphics and diagnostic features, all of the analyses are done with code, thus programming is required.
It is from Imperial College and Medical Research Council, UK, and is available @ www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/bugs/winbugs/contents.shtml
Warning: Although the program is Windows-based, offers a convenient graphical user interface, and includes several automatic graphics and diagnostic features, all of the analyses are done with code, thus programming is required.
It is from Imperial College and Medical Research Council, UK, and is available @ www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/bugs/winbugs/contents.shtml
Saturday, March 17, 2007
4 New Complexity-Related Books
"Fundamentals of Computational Swarm Intelligence" by Andries P. Engelbrecht introduces the reader to the mathematical models of social insects collective behaviour, and shows how they can be used in solving optimization problems.
"Perfect Order" by J. Stephen Lansing is an ethnographic & and historical study of the complexity of Bali and the emergent phenomena - in the sense of self-organizing systems - in that society and its environment.
"Rhythms of the Brain" by Gyrogy Buzsaki discusses the way in which the brain is a complex adaptive, self-organizing system and that it has an extraordinary capacity for generating waves that organize its activity. His emphasis on brain waves is reminiscent of the Adaptive Resonance Theory (really a hypothesis) of the Mind.
"The Swarm" by Frank Schatzing has been a best-selling science-fiction novel in Germany; it depicts a struggle between good and evil, with both human and sub-oceanic forces battling for control of the waters. At stake (as usual) is the survival of the Earth's fragile ecology -- and ultimately, the survival of the human race itself. The style is reminiscent of Jules Verne - with just the right amount of hard-science and human interest to keep one going.
"Perfect Order" by J. Stephen Lansing is an ethnographic & and historical study of the complexity of Bali and the emergent phenomena - in the sense of self-organizing systems - in that society and its environment.
"Rhythms of the Brain" by Gyrogy Buzsaki discusses the way in which the brain is a complex adaptive, self-organizing system and that it has an extraordinary capacity for generating waves that organize its activity. His emphasis on brain waves is reminiscent of the Adaptive Resonance Theory (really a hypothesis) of the Mind.
"The Swarm" by Frank Schatzing has been a best-selling science-fiction novel in Germany; it depicts a struggle between good and evil, with both human and sub-oceanic forces battling for control of the waters. At stake (as usual) is the survival of the Earth's fragile ecology -- and ultimately, the survival of the human race itself. The style is reminiscent of Jules Verne - with just the right amount of hard-science and human interest to keep one going.
Friday, March 16, 2007
PLM & SharePoint 2007
Microsoft is positioning SharePoint 2007 as a development platform (just like various flavors of Windows OS are development platforms) for (abstract) document management systems. (Out –of-the-box it is no Documentum though!)
This is a PLM tool and MS is thinking of it that way as well.
It has most of the ingredients that a more mature tool-kit such as TeamCenter Enterprise has and is equally complex to customize, and configure. It has
- Difficult to program, test, debug, and validate state-chart workflows as opposed to straight-through workflows.
- Workflow engine & supporting .Net classes (3.0). This workflow is going to replace the MS BizTalk Server 2006’s workflow model.
- Extensible Data Model (requires SQL Server 2005 or SQL Server 2005 Express)
- Extensible object model tied to both .Net 3.0 Framework and its own data model
- “Design once, Deploy Anywhere” form development for both Web Forms & Windows Forms (through InfoPath). By this I mean that you can design the form using InfoPath and deploy that form either as a Web Form (HTML) or a Rich Client Form (Windows Client application) .
- It is the Information Rights Management part of SharePoint that controls the permissions of fields within a Form (a view of an abstract document in the MVC parlance)
- Security and Access is either through ActiveDirectory or through LDAP (this must be programmed.)
What it does not have is a rules engine that TCE does have out-of-the-box, a more extensive data model, and more integration among its various pieces. On the other hand, its installation is a breeze compared to TCE!
Since MS practice has been to respect its customers and give them the ability to keep their data intact (the famous backwards compatibility of MS products) there is less chance of MS taking its customers’ data hostage in order to keep them here. Something that I cannot vouch for many other PLM vendors!
I think it will be a good idea for some one to develop a PLM Reference Implementation of SharePoint 2007 using the SharePoint Server 2007 SDK: Software Development Kit and Enterprise Content Management Starter Kit which may be found @
http://www.microsoft.com/downloads/details.aspx?FamilyId=6D94E307-67D9-41AC-B2D6-0074D6286FA9&displaylang=en
The reason I so think is that there has been a lot of unhappiness with the current PLM vendors for reasons of high initial cost, high cost of migrating one's data from one vendor's tool to another (vendor lock-in), high-cost of customization ("make it hard to customize so I can get all those consulting dollars") etc.
SharePoint 2007 now has a sort of a WebLog and Wiki but they are not features that are germane to it – they have been added because customers asked for them. Having a built-in Wiki for an abstract document management system does make sense – it is the place to collaborate and discuss issues outside of the workflow’s rigid rules.
However, to me, a WebLog makes no sense for this product as it is positioned now. And even for a Wiki, I would not got to SharePoint – I do not need all that machinery for a light-weight service such as a Wiki.
Thursday, March 15, 2007
Characterization Tests & Legacy Modernization
In the book "Working Effectively with Legacy Code", Michael Feathers discusses "characterization tests" which are unit tests written explicitly for the purpose of capturing the current functionality of the code and record how it operates.
Agitar now supplies an Eclipse plug-in which sends the code to Agitar's servers where dozens of tests per class are generated and shipped back to your desk-top. These tests are designed to pass and as the legacy code is modified, augmented, or re-factored some or all of these tests will fail due to changes that have broken the functionality of the code.
Check out the beta version @ http://www.junitfactory.com/.
Agitar now supplies an Eclipse plug-in which sends the code to Agitar's servers where dozens of tests per class are generated and shipped back to your desk-top. These tests are designed to pass and as the legacy code is modified, augmented, or re-factored some or all of these tests will fail due to changes that have broken the functionality of the code.
Check out the beta version @ http://www.junitfactory.com/.
Wednesday, March 14, 2007
Some Resources for Virtual Worlds
Virtual worlds offer flexible spaces for learning, development, exploration, problem-solving and creativity—educational use of these spaces is already underway and growing. Why can’t a Help Desk System be based on the use of a virtual world that enables the exploration of previous trouble tickets and finding new solutions?
Play2Train
This bioterroism simulation was built in Second Life and is designed to teach preparedness through role-playing.
Simulations in Neverwinter Nights
A communications class at the University of Minnesota used a simulation built by modifying the game Neverwinter Nights to practice investigative journalism.
Real Learning in a Virtual World
(Gregory M. Lamb, The Christian Science Monitor,October 5, 2006) This article describes some of the ways Second Life is used in college courses.
Right-click to Learn
(Kate Cohen, The Phoenix, August 17, 2006) Educators plan activities in Second Life.
Terra Nova
This multi-authored blog discusses virtual worlds and their implications.
Top 10 Opportunities in Virtual Worlds
(Tristan Louis, The TNL.net Weblog, August 18, 2006) One in a series of articles about virtual worlds, this post discusses opportunities for vendors, users, and secondary markets.
When Do Online/Computer Simulations Add the Most Value?
(Gene Koo, video vidi visum: virtual, December 5, 2006) This blog post considers three cases where simulations are an advantageous tool for teaching and learning.
del.icio.us: Virtual Worlds
(Horizon Project Advisory Board and Friends, 2006) Follow this link to resources tagged for this topic including the ones listed here. To add to this list, simply tag resources with “hz07” and “virtual_worlds” when you save them to del.icio.us.
Play2Train
This bioterroism simulation was built in Second Life and is designed to teach preparedness through role-playing.
Simulations in Neverwinter Nights
A communications class at the University of Minnesota used a simulation built by modifying the game Neverwinter Nights to practice investigative journalism.
Real Learning in a Virtual World
(Gregory M. Lamb, The Christian Science Monitor,October 5, 2006) This article describes some of the ways Second Life is used in college courses.
Right-click to Learn
(Kate Cohen, The Phoenix, August 17, 2006) Educators plan activities in Second Life.
Terra Nova
This multi-authored blog discusses virtual worlds and their implications.
Top 10 Opportunities in Virtual Worlds
(Tristan Louis, The TNL.net Weblog, August 18, 2006) One in a series of articles about virtual worlds, this post discusses opportunities for vendors, users, and secondary markets.
When Do Online/Computer Simulations Add the Most Value?
(Gene Koo, video vidi visum: virtual, December 5, 2006) This blog post considers three cases where simulations are an advantageous tool for teaching and learning.
del.icio.us: Virtual Worlds
(Horizon Project Advisory Board and Friends, 2006) Follow this link to resources tagged for this topic including the ones listed here. To add to this list, simply tag resources with “hz07” and “virtual_worlds” when you save them to del.icio.us.
The Horizon Report 2007
This is an interesting report that highlights 6 (IT) technologies that may become very important to teaching, learning, and creative expression over the next 1 to 5 years.
Find it @ http://www.nmc.org/pdf/2007_Horizon_Report.pdf
Find it @ http://www.nmc.org/pdf/2007_Horizon_Report.pdf
Solver for Partial Differential Equations
FlexPDE is a scripted finite element model builder and numerical solver. The software is available @ http://www.flexpde.com/sdmenu5.html
and a Student License @ http://www.flexpde.com/student5.html
and sample books @ http://www.flexpde.com/bookstore.html
Consider solving the following PDE problem with the specified boundary conditions:
You have to develop the script first.
FlexPDE equations must be second order or less in space and first order or less in time, so one has to split this equation into a system of three equations:
w: dt(w)=u
v: dxx(w)=v
u: EI*dxx(v)+rho*A*dt(u)=0
Now for the boundary conditions
w=0 is a boundary condition on w,
dxx(w)=0 is boundary condition on v,
dxx(w)=M/EI is boundary condition on v,
and
EI*dx(v)=EI*dxxx(w)=F is the natural BC for the u equation.
and a Student License @ http://www.flexpde.com/student5.html
and sample books @ http://www.flexpde.com/bookstore.html
Consider solving the following PDE problem with the specified boundary conditions:
You have to develop the script first.
FlexPDE equations must be second order or less in space and first order or less in time, so one has to split this equation into a system of three equations:
w: dt(w)=u
v: dxx(w)=v
u: EI*dxx(v)+rho*A*dt(u)=0
Now for the boundary conditions
w=0 is a boundary condition on w,
dxx(w)=0 is boundary condition on v,
dxx(w)=M/EI is boundary condition on v,
and
EI*dx(v)=EI*dxxx(w)=F is the natural BC for the u equation.
Tuesday, March 13, 2007
Free PLM Software
Free 3D MCAD Software from CoCreate
CoCreate OneSpace Modeling Personal Edition @
http://www.cocreate.com/OneSpaceModelingPE.cfm?c1=web&source=cc&kw=banner
CoCreate OneSpace Modeling Personal Edition @
http://www.cocreate.com/OneSpaceModelingPE.cfm?c1=web&source=cc&kw=banner
Phylotaxis Web Site
I love the graphics on this site - this is the type of thing that we need to do when we develop Web applications.
http://www.phylotaxis.com/
http://www.phylotaxis.com/
Implanted RFID
From IEEE Spectrum:
Hands On :"How radio-frequency identification and I got personal"
RFID inside : "The murky ethics of implanted chips"
I can see where this is going - implanting them in convicts and others that have run afoul of the State.
I think this is another blow against Freedom & Liberty.
Hands On :"How radio-frequency identification and I got personal"
RFID inside : "The murky ethics of implanted chips"
I can see where this is going - implanting them in convicts and others that have run afoul of the State.
I think this is another blow against Freedom & Liberty.
Monday, March 12, 2007
Science Knowledge Map
This is a map of relationships among scientific paradigms by sorting 80,000 published scientific papers into 776 scientific paradigms (shown as pale circular nodes) based on how often the papers were cited together by author of other papers.
Find it @ http://www.seedmagazine.com/news/uploads/scimaplarge.jpg
Links (curved black lines) were made between the paradigms that shared papers, then treated as rubber bands, holding similar paradigms nearer one another when a physical simulation forced every paradigm to repel every other; thus the layout derives directly from the data.
Larger paradigms have more papers; node proximity and darker links indicate how many papers are shared between two paradigms. Flowing labels list common words unique to each paradigm, large labels general areas of scientific inquiry.
Information Esthetics, an organization founded by map co-creator W. Bradford Paley, is giving away 25" x 24" prints of the Map of Science. Visit the Information Esthetics site to order a free print. (Shipping and handling are not included.)
I should think that our conceptual world is something like this but on steroids.
Find it @ http://www.seedmagazine.com/news/uploads/scimaplarge.jpg
Links (curved black lines) were made between the paradigms that shared papers, then treated as rubber bands, holding similar paradigms nearer one another when a physical simulation forced every paradigm to repel every other; thus the layout derives directly from the data.
Larger paradigms have more papers; node proximity and darker links indicate how many papers are shared between two paradigms. Flowing labels list common words unique to each paradigm, large labels general areas of scientific inquiry.
Information Esthetics, an organization founded by map co-creator W. Bradford Paley, is giving away 25" x 24" prints of the Map of Science. Visit the Information Esthetics site to order a free print. (Shipping and handling are not included.)
I should think that our conceptual world is something like this but on steroids.
Standards for Car Talk
Please find an article from the IEEE "The Institute" magazine regarding the recent IEEE standards for car and roadside infrastructures to communicate with each other @
http://www.theinstitute.ieee.org/portal/site/tionline/menuitem.130a3558587d56e8fb2275875bac26c8/index.jsp?&pName=institute_level1_article&TheCat=2201&article=tionline/legacy/inst2007/mar2007/featurewire.xml&
http://www.theinstitute.ieee.org/portal/site/tionline/menuitem.130a3558587d56e8fb2275875bac26c8/index.jsp?&pName=institute_level1_article&TheCat=2201&article=tionline/legacy/inst2007/mar2007/featurewire.xml&
Second Life
Please find below a link to Baseline Magazine's article on the "Second Life" social computing Web site.
http://www.baselinemag.com/article2/0,1540,2098837,00.asp
It seems that the people who enjoy Second Life the most are creative, like to show-off their creations, and sell them - if possible.
Which reminds me of the children's social computing Web site: Neopets!
Guys; there must be a way to make money with this stuff!
http://www.baselinemag.com/article2/0,1540,2098837,00.asp
It seems that the people who enjoy Second Life the most are creative, like to show-off their creations, and sell them - if possible.
Which reminds me of the children's social computing Web site: Neopets!
Guys; there must be a way to make money with this stuff!
Simulations and History
In the science-fiction novel "Hard to be a God" by Arkadii Sturgatskii (1975) Earth is interfering in the affairs of the planet Arankar in order to save its inhabitants from themselves - with certain unfortunate consequences. The Earth "progressors" work for "The Institute of Experimental History"; which, in turn, implies the existence of a science of Theoretical History.
I believe Life has caught up with Art here. I believe we are now at the start of a science of Theoretical History. This is essentially the science of using computer simulations of dynamical models of historical processes in order to gain understanding of those processes.
There are two books that cover this material but from different perspectives:
- "Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall" by Peter Turchin (2003) which is a formal state of the art modeling and computer simulation of long-term historical changes in territorial states.
And
- "Genes, Mind, And Culture: The Coevolutionary Process" by Charles J. Lumsden & Edward O. Wilson (1981) which does not have any of the computer modeling of the previous work but is ground-breaking in its conceptions and its application of evolutionary dynamics. The idea here is that there is a positive feedback mechanism between biological and cultural evolution that explains why human society "took off" after millennia of paleolithic stasis. (Caution: Australian Aborigines remained in stasis for 60,000 years!) The central idea is that genetic constraints shape culture, which in turn becomes the cultural environment in which an individual's Darwinian fitness is determined, forming a positive feedback between cultural and evolutionary change.
-
I believe Life has caught up with Art here. I believe we are now at the start of a science of Theoretical History. This is essentially the science of using computer simulations of dynamical models of historical processes in order to gain understanding of those processes.
There are two books that cover this material but from different perspectives:
- "Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall" by Peter Turchin (2003) which is a formal state of the art modeling and computer simulation of long-term historical changes in territorial states.
And
- "Genes, Mind, And Culture: The Coevolutionary Process" by Charles J. Lumsden & Edward O. Wilson (1981) which does not have any of the computer modeling of the previous work but is ground-breaking in its conceptions and its application of evolutionary dynamics. The idea here is that there is a positive feedback mechanism between biological and cultural evolution that explains why human society "took off" after millennia of paleolithic stasis. (Caution: Australian Aborigines remained in stasis for 60,000 years!) The central idea is that genetic constraints shape culture, which in turn becomes the cultural environment in which an individual's Darwinian fitness is determined, forming a positive feedback between cultural and evolutionary change.
-
Free Magazine Subscription
Free Subscription to the Baseline Magazine is available @
http://www.omeda.com/ziff/bsl/bsl.cgi?t=dual
http://www.omeda.com/ziff/bsl/bsl.cgi?t=dual
Friday, March 9, 2007
CHAOS: A Recipe for Success
The 10th edition of the annual CHAOS report from The Standish Group, which researches the reasons for IT project failure in the United States, indicates that project success rates have increased to 34 percent of all projects - a 100 percent improvement over the rate reported in 1994.
The primary reason is the projects have gotten a lot smaller. Doing projects with iterative processing as opposed to the waterfall method, which called for all project requirements to be defined up front, is a major step forward.
Project failures have declined to 15 percent of all projects, a vast improvement over the 31-percent failure rate reported in 1994.
Projects meeting the “challenged” description—meaning that they are over time, over budget and/or lacking critical features and requirements— total 51 percent of all projects in the current survey.
Most of the challenged projects in this year’s survey had a cost overrun of under 20 percent of the budget, a threefold improvement over the first 1994 study.
Find the entire report @ http://www.velocitystorm.com/resources/chaos.pdf
The primary reason is the projects have gotten a lot smaller. Doing projects with iterative processing as opposed to the waterfall method, which called for all project requirements to be defined up front, is a major step forward.
Project failures have declined to 15 percent of all projects, a vast improvement over the 31-percent failure rate reported in 1994.
Projects meeting the “challenged” description—meaning that they are over time, over budget and/or lacking critical features and requirements— total 51 percent of all projects in the current survey.
Most of the challenged projects in this year’s survey had a cost overrun of under 20 percent of the budget, a threefold improvement over the first 1994 study.
Find the entire report @ http://www.velocitystorm.com/resources/chaos.pdf
Wednesday, March 7, 2007
Foreign Influence on Software
A report on foreign influence on software from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (www.csis.org)
http://www.csis.org/media/csis/pubs/070307_foreign_software.pdf
http://www.csis.org/media/csis/pubs/070307_foreign_software.pdf
Saturday, March 3, 2007
Live Science Web Site
This is a nice popular science site with a lot of information regarding both natural and human sciences @ http://www.livescience.com/.
Be sure to check the Science Myths page ("we are using only 10% of our brain" and the like) @ http://www.livescience.com/bestimg/result.php?back=&cat=myths
Be sure to check the Science Myths page ("we are using only 10% of our brain" and the like) @ http://www.livescience.com/bestimg/result.php?back=&cat=myths
Soar
Soar is a unified architecture for developing intelligent systems. That is, Soar provides the fixed computational structures in which knowledge can be encoded and used to produce action in pursuit of goals.
There are free Soar tools @ http://sitemaker.umich.edu/soar/soar_software_downloads
The FAQ is @ http://acs.ist.psu.edu/soar-faq/soar-faq.html
There are free Soar tools @ http://sitemaker.umich.edu/soar/soar_software_downloads
The FAQ is @ http://acs.ist.psu.edu/soar-faq/soar-faq.html
Revolutionizing Science & Engineering Through Cyberinfrastructure
This is a report on the topic of cyberinfrastructure needed for science & engineering published on January 2003.
Find it @ www.nsf.gov/cise/sci/reports/atkins.pdf
It is from the National Science Foundation (NSF) Blue-Ribbon Advisory Panel on Cyberinfrastructure and is also known as the Atkins report.
By the way, NSF sometimes is referred to as Never Sufficient Funds!
Find it @ www.nsf.gov/cise/sci/reports/atkins.pdf
It is from the National Science Foundation (NSF) Blue-Ribbon Advisory Panel on Cyberinfrastructure and is also known as the Atkins report.
By the way, NSF sometimes is referred to as Never Sufficient Funds!
Free Machine Learning Software
Weka (Weka is an endangered flightless bird with an inquisitive nature) is a free Machine Learning Workbench from the Computer Science Department at the University of Waikato, NZ.
It is useful for mining underlying data patterns in large data sets but is far more than a glorified neural network system. It does a variety of regression, clustering and classification problems as well as many statistical analyses to assist in better discovering and understanding patterns in large (or smaller) data sets. It contains several familiar neural networks as well as others developed specifically for the program. To make it even more useful, there are extensive graphics capabilities so that one may visualize patterns and results to further suggest different lines of analysis.
It is Java based and the release and developer branches require Java 1.4 and 5.0 respectively.
Download it @ http://www.cs.waikato.ac.nz/~ml/weka/
There is also a very active users group that can be accessed on line @ list.scms.waikato.ac.nz/mailman/listinfo/wekalist
The developers usually refer users to the Witten and Frank text for questions (see below).
It was announced that Pentaho, an open source Business Intelligence organization, acquired the Weka project.
University of Waikato
Department of Computer Science
Private Bag 3105
HamiltonNEW ZEALAND
+64 7 838 4021 Fax: +64 7 858 5095
cs@waikato.ac.nz;
Weka Home @ www.cs.waikato.ac.nz/ml/weka
Ian H. Witten and Eibe Frank. Data Mining: Practical Machine Learning Tools and Techniques, 2nd Edition, Morgan Kaufmann, San Francisco, 2005, ISBN 0120884070.
It is useful for mining underlying data patterns in large data sets but is far more than a glorified neural network system. It does a variety of regression, clustering and classification problems as well as many statistical analyses to assist in better discovering and understanding patterns in large (or smaller) data sets. It contains several familiar neural networks as well as others developed specifically for the program. To make it even more useful, there are extensive graphics capabilities so that one may visualize patterns and results to further suggest different lines of analysis.
It is Java based and the release and developer branches require Java 1.4 and 5.0 respectively.
Download it @ http://www.cs.waikato.ac.nz/~ml/weka/
There is also a very active users group that can be accessed on line @ list.scms.waikato.ac.nz/mailman/listinfo/wekalist
The developers usually refer users to the Witten and Frank text for questions (see below).
It was announced that Pentaho, an open source Business Intelligence organization, acquired the Weka project.
University of Waikato
Department of Computer Science
Private Bag 3105
HamiltonNEW ZEALAND
+64 7 838 4021 Fax: +64 7 858 5095
cs@waikato.ac.nz;
Weka Home @ www.cs.waikato.ac.nz/ml/weka
Ian H. Witten and Eibe Frank. Data Mining: Practical Machine Learning Tools and Techniques, 2nd Edition, Morgan Kaufmann, San Francisco, 2005, ISBN 0120884070.
Friday, March 2, 2007
Thursday, March 1, 2007
Placebo Effect
I am including here an excerpt from the Wall Street Journal, 03/01/2007, Page BI article titled "Emerging Drugs Show Promise Against HIV":
"Robin Isaacs, Merck's executive director of infectious-disease clinical development, said the two latest studies show the drug, taken twice a day, helped drive virus levels down to undetectable in slightly more than 60% of volunteers when added to an antiviral cocktail. Only 33% to 36% of patients receiving a placebo had similar reductions. Volunteers taking the new drug also saw higher levels of CD-4 cells than patients receiving placebo. A Merck spokesman said the company expects to file for FDA approval in the second quarter of this year."
I have highlighted the part that I find astonishing - that 33 to 36 percent of the patients on placebo had the same response as those on the actual drugs.
Yes, Virginia, there is a Placebo Effect.
Only if we knew how to harness it.
"Robin Isaacs, Merck's executive director of infectious-disease clinical development, said the two latest studies show the drug, taken twice a day, helped drive virus levels down to undetectable in slightly more than 60% of volunteers when added to an antiviral cocktail. Only 33% to 36% of patients receiving a placebo had similar reductions. Volunteers taking the new drug also saw higher levels of CD-4 cells than patients receiving placebo. A Merck spokesman said the company expects to file for FDA approval in the second quarter of this year."
I have highlighted the part that I find astonishing - that 33 to 36 percent of the patients on placebo had the same response as those on the actual drugs.
Yes, Virginia, there is a Placebo Effect.
Only if we knew how to harness it.
Inventor picks brain for new tool class
Interview with Jeff Hawkins, the founder of Palm, Inc. & Newmenta, Inc. @
It requires registration at EE Times.
The Numenta tools are available as free Linux downloads @ http://www.numenta.com/
AI Add-ins for Excel
If you are like me and are interested in building solutions for clients who can benefit from AI technologies, it will be a good idea then to consider Excel. MS Excel is pervasive, people understand it, it is inexpensive, and it has tremendous analytical capabilities. And there are a lot of COTS solutions out there for it in the form of Add-ins. Examples are:
1. Neuranalyst @ www.cheshireeng.com/Neuralyst/nrlnfe.htm which is a general purpose neural network engine.
2. Data Intelligence Add-In @ http://www.aicomponents.com which is offering decision trees, clustering, association rules and feed-forward neural network algorithms
3. nn_Solve is a neural network model built with MS Excel. User will learn how easy it is to use a worksheet as a powerful forecasting tool @ http://www.xlpert.com/
4. NeuroXL Classifier is a neural network software tool for classifying data in Excel. There is also NeuroXL Predictor which is a neural network forecasting tool. Find them both @ http://www.neuroxl.com/
5. Braincel: Neural Net Add-In Module @ http://www.jurikres.com/catalog/ms_bcel.htm
6. Alyuda Forecaster XL @ http://www.alyuda.com/
7. NeuroSolutions @ http://www.nd.com/
8. Tiberius Data Mining has TiberiusXL @ http://www.philbrierley.com/main.html?code/vba.html&code/codeleft.html
9. ClassifierXL @ http://www.dotxls.com/excel-stock-market/80/classifierxl-data-mining-and-pattern-recognition
10. BrainSheet @ http://www.brainsheet.com/
11. Artificial Neural Network Software @ http://www.ozgrid.com/Services/neural-network-software.htm
12. Text Analysis @ http://www.componentsource.com/features/ai/index.html
13. Treeplan offer a decision tree Add-in for Excel @ http://www.treeplan.com/treeplan.htm
14. Free Classification Tree in Excel @ http://www.geocities.com/adotsaha/CTree/CtreeinExcel.html
15. The Lumenaut Excel software add-in features a Monte Carlo Risk Simulation package, a Decision Tree analysis package and a Parametric and Non-Parametric Statistics package @ http://www.lumenaut.com/
16. PrecisionTree is Decision Analysis @ http://www.palisade-europe.com/precisiontree/
17. TreeAge Software is a decision tree based software program that also links with Excel and includes Monte Carlo simulation, cost-effectiveness analysis. Their website is www.treeage.com. The Excel Module is located at: http://www.treeage.com/products/overviewExcel.html
The Generation 5 @ http://www.generation5.org/ site is a community-orientated, site that deals with all AI topics including robotics, neural networks, genetic algorithms, AI programming.
Also the site The Excel Nexus contains a long list of Excel Add-is @ http://www.vertex42.com/ExcelLinks/cat/excel-add-ins-software-1.html
1. Neuranalyst @ www.cheshireeng.com/Neuralyst/nrlnfe.htm which is a general purpose neural network engine.
2. Data Intelligence Add-In @ http://www.aicomponents.com which is offering decision trees, clustering, association rules and feed-forward neural network algorithms
3. nn_Solve is a neural network model built with MS Excel. User will learn how easy it is to use a worksheet as a powerful forecasting tool @ http://www.xlpert.com/
4. NeuroXL Classifier is a neural network software tool for classifying data in Excel. There is also NeuroXL Predictor which is a neural network forecasting tool. Find them both @ http://www.neuroxl.com/
5. Braincel: Neural Net Add-In Module @ http://www.jurikres.com/catalog/ms_bcel.htm
6. Alyuda Forecaster XL @ http://www.alyuda.com/
7. NeuroSolutions @ http://www.nd.com/
8. Tiberius Data Mining has TiberiusXL @ http://www.philbrierley.com/main.html?code/vba.html&code/codeleft.html
9. ClassifierXL @ http://www.dotxls.com/excel-stock-market/80/classifierxl-data-mining-and-pattern-recognition
10. BrainSheet @ http://www.brainsheet.com/
11. Artificial Neural Network Software @ http://www.ozgrid.com/Services/neural-network-software.htm
12. Text Analysis @ http://www.componentsource.com/features/ai/index.html
13. Treeplan offer a decision tree Add-in for Excel @ http://www.treeplan.com/treeplan.htm
14. Free Classification Tree in Excel @ http://www.geocities.com/adotsaha/CTree/CtreeinExcel.html
15. The Lumenaut Excel software add-in features a Monte Carlo Risk Simulation package, a Decision Tree analysis package and a Parametric and Non-Parametric Statistics package @ http://www.lumenaut.com/
16. PrecisionTree is Decision Analysis @ http://www.palisade-europe.com/precisiontree/
17. TreeAge Software is a decision tree based software program that also links with Excel and includes Monte Carlo simulation, cost-effectiveness analysis. Their website is www.treeage.com. The Excel Module is located at: http://www.treeage.com/products/overviewExcel.html
The Generation 5 @ http://www.generation5.org/ site is a community-orientated, site that deals with all AI topics including robotics, neural networks, genetic algorithms, AI programming.
Also the site The Excel Nexus contains a long list of Excel Add-is @ http://www.vertex42.com/ExcelLinks/cat/excel-add-ins-software-1.html
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About Me
- Babak Makkinejad
- I had been a senior software developer working for HP and GM. I am interested in intelligent and scientific computing. I am passionate about computers as enablers for human imagination. The contents of this site are not in any way, shape, or form endorsed, approved, or otherwise authorized by HP, its subsidiaries, or its officers and shareholders.