Managing Risk on Software Projects

Waltzing With Bears: Managing Risk on Software Projects  by Tom DeMarco and Timothy Lister assumes no prior knowledge of risk and uncertainty - and works its way up from assuming total ignorance of the key concepts of risk management by the Project Manager - such as inherent uncertainty/noise in all physical processes - to some semblance of quantitative risk management at the level of a person who has mastered Algebra II in a US high school.