How to reopen society using medical science and logic:
Monday, May 4, 2020
Wednesday, April 29, 2020
COVID-19: The End?
Study predicts end of corona-virus worldwide using artificial intelligence
Details may be found here:
https://people.sutd.edu.sg/jianxi_luo/public_html/COVID19PredictionPaper.pdf
Tuesday, April 28, 2020
COVID-19: News Updates
BBC
A lot is written about COVID 19 but these 3 stories seem
particularly relevant and interesting.
The 1st one is good news: Oxford University claims to have found a vaccine
that works, which could be ready in September 2020. It has been tested on
monkeys already, and successfully so.
The 2nd one is about the issue of immunity, which is on everyone's mind: the
article explains why this question is complex.
The 3rd one is about New Zealand, a fellow Commonwealth country and an
English-speaking island nation, just like Britain: New Zealand currently has
1,124 confirmed cases and 19 deaths out of a
population of around five million people. Its new cases have stayed in
the single digits for several days, leading the government to say that the
virus was effectively eliminated.
The population of the UK is about 65 million people: if you
multiply the NZ figures by 10 (5m X 10 = 50 m), you would have 190 dead. Right
now, in Britain, it is >20,000. Including deaths in care homes and other
unrecorded deaths, it is probably closer to 28,000, perhaps as high as
35,000.
The article explains what NZ did right, which shows what the UK
did wrong. All the rest is waffle and obfuscation. It is all very well having a
minute's silence for all the medical staff who have died; the point is, they
should never have died in the first place.
_______________________________
Could there be millions of doses of a Covid-19 vaccine available
by September?
It seems significantly earlier than we had been cautioned to
expect, but the Oxford University's Jenner Insititute believes it has produced
an effective vaccine, and plans to carry out clinical tests on 6,000 people
before the end of May.
The Jenner vaccine was tested on six rhesus macaque monkeys at the
US National Institutes of Health’s Rocky Mountain Laboratory in Montana last
month, according to the New York Times.
The monkeys were exposed to high doses of the virus, and all six
remained healthy 28 days later. Monkeys without the vaccine fell sick,
according to the report.
The Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI), which
is funding nine different coronavirus vaccine projects, is hopeful a vaccine
could be ready this year, Bloomberg reports.
CEPI
had initially envisaged a later timescale because it had not taken factors into
account such as companies working together.
_____________
 |
Can you catch
coronavirus again? Why are some people sicker than others? Will it come back
every winter? Will a vaccine work? Could immunity passports get some of us
back to work? How do we manage ...
|
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-52450978
 |
Coffee and fast food
seemed to be the first thing on the mind of New Zealanders as the country
emerged from almost five weeks of strict lockdown. The alert level has
shifted to level three ...
|
Friday, April 17, 2020
COVID19: Life Imitates Art
Art work created by Tara Behbahani for an exhibition in China 8 years ago:
COVID-19: Seasonal Effects
From the University of Michigan School of Public Health:
Of the seven coronaviruses known to infect people, four cause common respiratory infections that are sharply seasonal and appear to transmit similarly to influenza
Of the seven coronaviruses known to infect people, four cause common respiratory infections that are sharply seasonal and appear to transmit similarly to influenza
Details below:
Coronavirus occurrence and transmission over 8 years in the HIVE cohort of households in Michigan
https://academic.oup.com/jid/article/doi/10.1093/infdis/jiaa161/5815743?guestAccessKey=b19eb499-007a-4ebf-a4a8-bb6a7481ec0c
Wednesday, April 15, 2020
COVID-19: Anti-Malarial Drug Study
Most adequately designed study to date of anti malarial treatment:
Tuesday, April 14, 2020
Sunday, April 12, 2020
COVID-19: Neurological Consequences
COVID-19: Neurological Consquences of Infection
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamaneurology/fullarticle/2764549
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamaneurology/fullarticle/2764549
Saturday, April 11, 2020
Friday, April 10, 2020
Wednesday, April 8, 2020
COVID-19: Which Materials Make the Best Face Masks?
Which Materials Make the Best Face Masks?
https://www.labmanager.com/news/which-materials-make-the-best-face-masks-22249?utm_campaign=NEWSLETTERS_LM_Monitor_2020&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&utm_content=85984450&_hsenc=p2ANqtz--6ZQYTrPK94kNVPUKPVLTqV4XF17WuVWJMr6b3eW--3hiY5yTxDxjilHRxiChwIcrFR5z79uPhnFtmf90aFaWtUD3cxRFBlxEBwnR9X8NMggbFpUc&_hsmi=85984598
https://www.labmanager.com/news/which-materials-make-the-best-face-masks-22249?utm_campaign=NEWSLETTERS_LM_Monitor_2020&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&utm_content=85984450&_hsenc=p2ANqtz--6ZQYTrPK94kNVPUKPVLTqV4XF17WuVWJMr6b3eW--3hiY5yTxDxjilHRxiChwIcrFR5z79uPhnFtmf90aFaWtUD3cxRFBlxEBwnR9X8NMggbFpUc&_hsmi=85984598
Tuesday, April 7, 2020
A Magic Toilet
From Grauniad of the UK
"When Russia can afford it, I want every Russian to use his,
or her, magic toilet, and the data to be sent right back to the FSB,"
explained an enthusiastic Vladimir Putin. "We need to monitor the health
of the nation. And it's always good to know who is using a toilet when:
it's all about monitoring movements -- bowel movements and other movements,
including political movements, which are society's bowel movements, if you ask
me."
Monday, April 6, 2020
COVID-19: Simulation
Modelling transmission and control of the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia:
https://arxiv.org/abs/2003.10218
https://arxiv.org/abs/2003.10218
Sunday, April 5, 2020
COVID-19: Strange Properties of this Virus
Referring to the article below -
One cannot help but notice the following strange collection of features:
The unique furine cleavage site (known from other, completely different highly contagious flu viruses),
the CD147 docking site (known only from the dangerous Coxsakie virus and expressed strongly by cancer cells),
the GRP78 docking site (expressed by cells under stress)
the attack on hemoglobine,
multiple distinctive pathways to attack cells and cause damage.
None are found in any other corona virus genome...
COVID-19: Update on Chloroquine-based Treatment
In the science journals:
My conclusion, as a layperson, would be that the Chloroquine-based treatment has good potential and can constitute a [partial] cure, but it can also offer prophylaxis.
Even though more trials need to be conducted and it doesn't work every time, the alternative is bleak for the more serious cases... It may be the best the doctors have for now, while they are trying to develop a better form of treatment. A vaccine is still, from what we read, 12 to 18 months away at best.
Logically, the manufacturing of such drugs as used in these trials ought to be ramped up in the UK and other European countries, and the drugs used systematically for now, for want of an alternative. How long will that take? Britain and other European countries are not even able to get hold of enough protective equipment for their medical staff as things stand...
Friday, April 3, 2020
COVID-19: Some Thoughts
Seen and heard on BBC -- Corona Latest
Getting better by the day, folks!
Heard on BBC Radio 4 last night: doctors in
England are angry that there is no treatment at all for COVID-19
patients in British hospitals. None. Or, rather, there is: Paracetamol. That's
all they are allowed to give patients. Many have died of course. The doctors
wanted to try anything they had such as the Chloroquine option. But the British
authorities have said till now that doctors cannot use their own discretion and
we need UK-based results of fully, properly randomized trials. Which is
impossible at this stage. So, patients are dying rather than the doctors trying
anything -- something.
I am not sure I understand, personally, that
slightly pedantic attitude. You give them something if you know they are going
to die. If they die, they die. If they don't, it's a bonus, and it frees up a
bed all the same. But no: it would go against the rules. [Better not bring them
in: see below.]
Apparently, the British government is
considering loosening up its guidance and letting doctors use a bit more leeway
at local/ clinical level. When the death toll (daily) rises above 1,000,
maybe?
________________
In another development, care homes have
understood that their residents are unlikely to be admitted to hospital if they
fall ill with the corona-virus. So, many are putting extreme pressure on elderly
and frail residents to sign 'do not resuscitate' forms. What it means is that
the oldie agrees he (or she) is not worth saving. By signing the form, he (or
she) makes it easier for the care home and the medical services to
decide to let him (or her) die, because they were going to do that anyway.
It is a consent form that says: 'My life is worthless and I accept it
is.'
Never mind the fact some of those oldies may
be in good shape, still. What this tells us is: We're not going to try
to save you. Can't be bothered. You're a waste of space. Sorry! But do
remember: we care.
Presumably, Prince Charles (age, 71), doesn't live in an ordinary
care home in Sussex: he got the corona-virus and is alive and well. Uncanny.
_____________
Meanwhile, over in France, two medical professors recommend trying
new vaccines in sub-Saharan Africa, because Africans have nothing to
lose anyway. To illustrate the point, they draw a parallel with antiviral
trials on prostitutes. Charming: one can only grade highly this subtle,
considerate, humane, yet no-nonsense approach to reality that sometimes
dominates in France, more particularly when dealing with those who are weak and
helpless, and/or not French, and/or not White.
_________________
As we can see, the corona-virus is fast bringing out the worst
alongside the best in human nature that you can expect. So far we have learnt
today, therefore, that: (a) The life of a human being is intrinsically and
ultimately less important than medical methodology; (b) The life of old people
is worthless ('old' is anyone over 60 or 65, and certainly anyone over 70 ought
to be dead already...); (c) The life of black people is worthless (hence we
should try drugs and active agents of all kinds on them and see what happens,
and they'll be grateful for it).
"Bring it on", so the elite seems to say.
I think the COVID-19 pandemic has destroyed the Neo-Liberal
ideology and the order based on it – as its most egregious offenses are so un-apologetically discussed by BBC above.
I also think the European Union – as a political and social
project – is finished – although the Common Market could presumably continue to exist.
I do not see how Euro currency could survive – Spain and Italy have
to print money and give it to the unemployed for them to physically survive, would ECB go along with that?
I think not.
In earlier years, Brussels had imposed real political and economic costs on
Italy (as well as Greece ) – sanctioning Russia and Iran.
Those were US-UK pet projects - "contain Russia, destroy Iran".
But it was Russia (and China and Cuba) that came to
Italy’s aid and not US, or UK, or France, or Germany.
Ultimately, it was the local sovereign powers that counted;
in Italy or in Iran or in China and not transnational entities such as UN,
NATO, etc. And certainly not US.
Wednesday, April 1, 2020
COVID-19: More on a Potential Treatment
In the news -- To set the record straight (for those who are
interested)
This a serious, in-depth analysis of the claims made by the French
Professor, Dr. Raoult, in Marseille (Southern France).
It is clear he does not follow protocols properly and he is a
dubious character, if not worse. So, the jury is out. If he is any good, why is
he not listened to? If he is as bad as he seems to be, how come he is still in
post? There is a failing of the French system of supervision, here, to say the
least. This might be the real scandal within the crisis!
Apparently, larger-scale trials of this treatment or similar ones
are taking place, or about to take place, also in the USA, so, more evidence
should emerge.
The comments (some of them at any rate) are quite interesting,
because, to a layperson such as myself, they give an insight into the
complexity of assessing the efficacy of new drugs (or re-purposed 'old'
drugs).
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About Me
- Babak Makkinejad
- I had been a senior software developer working for HP and GM. I am interested in intelligent and scientific computing. I am passionate about computers as enablers for human imagination. The contents of this site are not in any way, shape, or form endorsed, approved, or otherwise authorized by HP, its subsidiaries, or its officers and shareholders.